U.S. Is Withholding Aid To Push Ukraine Towards Negotiations With Russia
December 06, 2023
Yesterday, at 9:46 local time, Strana published (machine translation):
Volodymyr Zelensky to address US senators via video link today - The Washington Post
Today, President Volodymyr Zelensky will address US senators via video link with a request to approve financial assistance to Ukraine. ...
Twelve hours later, at 21:43 local time, this piece came out:
"Something's happened." Zelensky canceled his speech to US senators at the last moment
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky canceled his speech to lawmakers scheduled for today at the last moment. This was announced by the head of the Democratic majority in the US Senate, Chuck Schumer."By the way, Zelensky was not able to join our briefing at 15:00 (22:00 Kiev time) – something happened at the last minute," Schumer said.
Well, yes, something had happened:
Ukraine Aid Falters in Senate as Republicans Insist on Border Restrictions
President Biden’s urgent push to replenish Ukraine’s war chest and send aid to Israel is on the brink of collapse in the Senate, where Republicans are prepared on Wednesday to block the funding unless Democrats agree to add strict measures to clamp down on migration at the U.S. border with Mexico.A classified briefing with administration officials called to shore up support devolved into a partisan screaming match on Tuesday afternoon, with Republicans angrily accusing Democrats of trying to steamroller over their demands for a border crackdown.
It would have been easy for the Democrats to commit a few billions for border security. But Biden wants to end the war in Ukraine. Starving it of money is the easiest way to push it towards negotiations.
All this was planned by the Pentagon think tank RAND which, early this year, published a study about how to end the war in Ukraine:
Avoiding a Long War - U.S. Policy and the Trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict
(A 2019 study by RAND, Extending Russia - Competing from Advantageous Ground, had recommended to openly arm Ukraine to keep Russia busy. It has been the basis of U.S. Ukraine policy ever since.)
But in early 2023 RAND had turned a corner and argued that a prolonged war in Ukraine will be too costly for the U.S. to sustain:
The biggest Ukraine problem the White House currently has is President Vladimir Zelenski who has rejected any and all negotiations with Russia.
The RAND study had foreseen such a situation and had found ways to push Ukraine towards talks with Russia:
[T]he United States could decide to condition future military aid on a Ukrainian commitment to negotiations. Setting conditions on aid to Ukraine would address a primary source of Kyiv's optimism that may be prolonging the war: a belief that Western aid will continue indefinitely or grow in quality and quantity. At the same time, the United States could also promise more aid for the postwar period to address Ukraine's fears about the durability of peace. Washington has done so in other cases, ...
...
Linking aid to Ukrainian willingness to negotiate has been anathema in Western policy discussions and for good reason: Ukraine is defending itself against unprovoked Russian aggression. However, the U.S. calculus may change as the costs and risks of the war mount. And the use of this U.S. lever can be calibrated. For example, the United States could level off aid, not dramatically reduce it, if Ukraine does not negotiate. And, again, a decision to level off wartime support pending negotiations can be made in tandem with promises about postwar sustained increases in assistance over the long term.
That was a nice plan. But how well the aid lever can be calibrated depends of course on Congress, not on the president's say so.
There are also downsides to withholding or giving aid promises:
Clarifying the future of U.S. aid to Ukraine could create perverse incentives depending on how the policy is implemented. Committing to increased wartime assistance to Ukraine to reduce Russian optimism could embolden the Ukrainians to obstruct negotiations, blame failure on Moscow, and gain more Western support. Announcing a decrease or leveling off in assistance to Ukraine to reduce Kyiv's optimism about the war could lead Russia to see the move as a signal of waning U.S. support for Ukraine. If it took this view, Russia might keep fighting in the hope that the United States would give up on Ukraine entirely. Although recognizing that Ukraine is fighting a defensive war for survival and Russia an aggressive war of aggrandizement, the United States would nonetheless have to carefully and dispassionately monitor events and target its efforts to create the intended effect on whichever side's optimism is determined to be the key impediment to starting talks.
This would probably have been a good way to go if Biden had control over dispensing or withholding funds to Kiev. But the Republicans as well as the Democrats, likely in consent with the White House, have so far blocked all further aid.
There current path then seems to be a different one towards negotiations with Russia - regime change in Kiev.
President Zelenski is unwilling to take up peace talks. If he can be pushed out of office during the next few months his likely replacement, General Zaluzny, will probably be more inclined to seek an end of the war.
Thus the current tactic is to pressure Zelenski into leaving by withholding all future funds. If another Ukrainian leader comes in, aid might again flow to prevent a total takeover of the country by Russia.
Still - the aid calibration would be a problem. So may be giving up and leave, as Biden did in Afghanistan, might be the preferred option.
Posted by b on December 6, 2023 at 11:32 UTC | Permalink